A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
